Higher Education in Australia: Evolution or Extinction?

Higher Education in Australia: Evolution or Extinction?
By Rob Leach, Founder, OCNUS Consulting

Evolutionary scientist Jay Gould used the term punctuated equilibrium to describe how species sometimes change very little for long periods and then undergo rapid bursts of evolution due to sudden environmental shifts. Organisms either adapt quickly or face extinction.

Australian higher education is at a moment of punctuated equilibrium. Our universities have been drivers of knowledge acquisition, development, economic growth, and social progress for over a century and a half. However, the world is rapidly changing, and our current higher education system no longer fits the emerging needs. The forces shaping our world—technical, economic, and social—demand a radical rethink of how our universities function and what they provide.

I have fond memories of my university years, where mixing with bright, well-educated peers was great fun, and I learnt as much—sometimes more—outside of classes as I did in lectures and tutorials. The thought that future students won’t enjoy my privilege is disturbing. But two things need to be recognised as I reminisce. First, universities have continuously evolved. Second, the university experience of my salad days hasn’t existed for quite a while.

The first university was probably al-Qarawiyyin in Fez, Morocco, founded in 859 CE. Bologna, established in 1088, is often cited as the first university in the modern sense—a self-governing, degree-awarding institution. Originally, universities were primarily religious institutions. The 19th century marked a pivotal shift with the rise of institutions such as the University of Berlin. This “Humboldtian model” emphasised independence of thought, the creation of new knowledge, and the integration of research with teaching. Sydney University and Melbourne were created in Australia using a slightly different model from their European contemporaries. They were secular and public, focused on professional training to provide the skills needed in the emerging nation.

My second point is that, if we’re honest, Australian students have not had a good campus experience for a long time. International university rankings emphasise research, and many of our universities do excellent work. To name a few, Life Sciences and Medicine are particularly strong at Sydney and Melbourne. The University of Queensland does important work in Agriculture and Forestry. The University of Tasmania is a leader in Earth Sciences.

Some universities are also doing good work in other ways. Newcastle’s commitment to regional development, the University of Technology Sydney’s strong industry collaborations, and ANU’s public policy impact exemplify how universities can embed themselves deeply in society.

Nevertheless, these strengths have masked the paucity of our students’ experiences. International and local surveys show that Australian students—particularly undergraduates—are underwhelmed by what they receive. Some of our best universities, e.g., Melbourne and Sydney, are near the bottom of the list for student satisfaction.

The problem is not the people running the universities. I know numerous academics who are excellent educators and many senior administrators who are deeply committed to creating a good student experience. The problem is the consistent failure of federal governments to implement forward-thinking policies and provide adequate funding.

Both political parties are culpable. Coalition governments typically describe education in terms of costs and want to introduce user-pays principles. Labor governments usually want to increase participation but lack the courage to raise the money to provide the necessary funding. Neither party has policies that show a meaningful understanding of the tidal changes building.

After peaking in the 1970s, federal funding decreased in real terms, and we’re well behind the best performers in the OECD. This is despite the fact that one of the best economic investments a government can make is in higher education. Important social, cultural, and environmental benefits also accrue from well-informed citizens who can think rigorously. However, a good education policy requires long-term planning, and unfortunately, our politicians lack the vision of their Scandinavian counterparts.

Underfunding has forced universities to adopt an intractable growth strategy. Consequently, the size of our universities means that, no matter how much they would like to, they cannot provide individual students with a rich and personal experience. If this doesn’t change, students will look elsewhere—which coincides with a growth in other options.

Evolutionary pressure is building as the price of a university degree is increasingly questioned. Platforms like Coursera, edX, and Udemy offer micro-credentials that provide targeted, AI-assisted learning. Google, Microsoft, and IBM are bypassing universities, offering up-to-date high-tech courses. At the same time, employers increasingly demand that new recruits have these work-ready skills.

Students and their parents are questioning whether earning your sheepskin is worth the time and cost. Of course, we all hope that university years are about more than job training. However, as the personal and community experience on campus is so attenuated, why waste money when cheaper, flexible, employment-relevant, and increasingly high-quality alternatives exist?

The development of educational technology itself will undermine the existing degree structures, especially at the undergraduate level. AI-driven learning, adaptive platforms, intelligent tutoring systems, and automated content creation are fundamentally reshaping how knowledge is acquired. Much of this will improve the student experience, with high-quality digital education being better for learning than old-style lectures. The traditional three-year Bachelor's degree is a redundant model with its lock-step structure and other constraints.

While some institutions—such as RMIT and Swinburne—have embraced industry partnerships and micro-credentials, most universities remain trapped in an outdated model of semester-based learning and rigid degrees. There’s lots of fiddling at the edges but not much fundamental restructuring. Universities have traditionally controlled the credentialing of knowledge, but technology is challenging that monopoly.

While we in Australia seem to spend our time wittering away about AI and plagiarism, universities worldwide are moving ahead. Last week, California State University announced a partnership with OpenAI. All of CSU’s students and faculty have access to ChatGPT Edu—a version of ChatGPT customised for educational institutions—and training will be integrated at all levels of the university.

Another pressure on higher education is growing public distrust. We’re not as far down this seedy path as America, where universities are supposedly the cause of social decline by driving a “woke” agenda. Such nonsense shouldn’t require mature attention. However, though ‘X’ may be inhabited by twits, the Joe Rogan ecosystem uninterested in facts and critical thought, and Jordan Peterson evolving into a right-wing shill—unfortunately, these voices have influence.

Notwithstanding the vacuousness of bro-culture whinging, Australian universities do need to change. They have measured their success by research rankings, grant funding, and student enrolments for too long. Universities must reorient themselves in an era of technological, economic, and social disruption—and students deserve a much better experience than they currently have.

Broad and deep intellectual inquiry should be celebrated, not apologised for. Nevertheless, universities need to link academic learning with the world off-campus. This means partnering with industry to drive productivity, leading in sustainability, driving social progress, and contributing to public discourse. A key element is embracing the enormous positive potential of emerging educational technologies.

Universities cannot do it alone. Indeed, many want to change but are constrained by overly restrictive regulations and inadequate funding. We need policies and frameworks that encourage universities to experiment with new models.

What concerns me is the insufficient discussion in Australia about the significant structural changes that are necessary. Minister Clare’s Universities Accord has much to applaud, but he does not provide any meaningful vision for the needed transformation. The forces at work are growing in weight and velocity, and evolution needs to happen faster.

The transformation will be complex, but good education has never been more vital than in our post-normal world. Many traditional structures, roles, and assumptions need to be dismantled. The alternative—that our universities slowly decline into irrelevance—is far worse. It’s time for Australian higher education to transform dramatically, not just to survive, but to lead our nation into the future.

I, and many like me, feel sad that the coming generations of students won’t have the university life that we enjoyed. Those years were about much more than the academic curriculum for most of us. But evolution takes no notice of our feelings. The universities of the future will not look like their ancestors.

We’re in an era of punctuated equilibrium. The question is not whether Australian universities need to change—but whether they can do so fast enough to avoid extinction.

Rob Leach
Founder
OCNUS Consulting